LA 97

Aaron Donald Rams Defensive Impact Simulator

Source: Sean McVay Commentary on Donald Workout (@NFL)
Front-Seven Pass-Rush Pocket Collapses Live Vectors Active
Aaron Donald (#97)
Rams Pass Rushers
Offensive Line Blocks
Quarterback Pocket
Pressure Rate
48.5%
Time To Throw
2.21s
Defensive EPA / Play
-0.142
Scenario & Workload Controls
88%
26%
64%
Aaron Donald vs. Position Averages (2014-2023)
Metric Category Aaron Donald Baseline Avg Interior DL Impact Differential
Pass-Rush Win Rate (PRWR) 26.0% 11.2% +14.8% (+132%)
Double-Team Frequency 64.0% 42.1% +21.9% (+52%)
Career Sack Total 111.0 34.5 +76.5 Sacks
Pro Bowl Selections 10 / 10 seasons 1.2 avg 100% Career Rate
AP Defensive Player of Year 3x Winner 0.02 avg Top 0.01% Elite
Workout Context

Sean McVay highlighted Donald's recent facility workout, showcasing his legendary baseline physical condition even post-retirement.

"Donald's double-team draw opens single-block lanes for the entire edge unit. Reducing #97's snaps below 50% drops team pressure frequency by over 14%."

Chalk talk: how the simulator adds Aaron Donald back to the Rams' pass rush

A one-minute painted explainer of this simulator's model: a base pass rush, Donald's added pressure, a shrinking pocket and defensive EPA, followed by his real career record.

Read the narration

Aaron Donald retired after the twenty twenty-three season, but a recent workout got fans asking: what if number ninety-nine came back? This simulator answers with three sliders and one simple model. It starts with the Rams' pass rush without him. The tool assumes a base pressure rate of twenty-two percent on every dropback. Then Donald adds his share: snap load, times win rate, times zero point eight five. At eighty-eight percent of snaps and a twenty-six percent win rate, that's about nineteen points, for a pressure rate of forty-one point four percent. Pressure squeezes the pocket. The quarterback's time to throw starts from two point eight five seconds and shrinks as pressure rises, down to two point two nine. Last comes defensive E P A per play, expected points added. Pressure pushes it down, and double teams nudge it a little lower, to minus zero point one three nine. In this model, double teams touch only that number. Click the Post-Retirement preset and his share vanishes: pressure falls back to twenty-two percent, and the pocket stays open for two point five five seconds.

What the model assumes, and what the record says

The tool's pressure rule

Team pressure = 22% + snap share × pass-rush win rate × 0.85, capped between 18% and 65%. At the defaults (88% snaps, 26% win rate) Donald adds 19.4 points, for 41.4%. These coefficients are the tool's assumptions, not fitted to real Rams data.

Time to throw and EPA

Time to throw = 2.85 s − 1.35 × pressure rate (kept between 2.10 and 2.95 s), giving 2.29 s at the defaults. Defensive EPA per play = 0.08 − 0.45 × pressure − 0.05 × double-team rate, giving −0.139. Lower EPA is better for a defense.

Double teams only move EPA

The Offensive Double-Team Rate slider changes EPA and the field drawing, but not the pressure rate or time to throw. Sliding it from 64% to 80% moves EPA only from −0.139 to −0.147.

The real career

Donald wore No. 99 for the Rams from 2014 to 2023: 111 regular-season sacks, three AP Defensive Player of the Year awards, ten Pro Bowls in ten seasons and a Super Bowl LVI title. He announced his retirement in March 2024.

Try it in the tool

  1. Click Post-Retirement Zero-97 Baseline and compare Pressure Rate and Time To Throw with the Prime Aaron Donald Baseline.
  2. Try the Part-Time Snap Load / Limited Workout Scenario: pressure lands near 29.6% and time to throw near 2.45 s.
  3. Move Offensive Double-Team Rate from 10% to 80% and notice that only Defensive EPA / Play changes.

Sources and further reading

  1. Aaron Donald · Wikipedia

    Career summary, jersey number, awards and retirement.

  2. Aaron Donald Stats · Pro Football Reference

    Season-by-season sacks and games.

  3. NFL Next Gen Stats · NFL

    Official tracking data, including time to throw and pressure.

  4. nflfastR · nflverse

    Open play-by-play data and documentation for expected points added (EPA).

  5. Quarterback sack · Wikipedia

    How sacks and pass-rush pressure are defined.

Numbers in the video come from this simulator's built-in formulas and default inputs; they illustrate the model, not real Rams results.

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