💾 Abandonware Archive Value & Media Preservation Ledger

ZFS RAID-Z2 + Cold LTO
Portfolio Cost Basis
$110.00
Audited acquisition capital
Fair-Market Appraisal
$660.00
+500.00% unrealized gain
Annual Storage Carry
$76.23
Power & Parity Tier (38.5 kWh @ $0.165)
Re-Release Adjusted Equity
$418.50
Stress-tested collector equity
10-Yr Projected Bitrot Loss
$142.85
Format degradation at 10y
â–£ CHASSIS STORAGE BAYS & PHYSICAL MEDIA HEALTH
Click slot to inspect • Live bitrot probability
Active Media Item
System Shock (Original Floppy Release) Healthy
Acquisition Basis $45.00
Current Appraisal $310.00
Annual Decay Risk 4.80% / yr
Re-Release Prob. 90%
Physical Sector Integrity vs. Time (Half-Life Projection) D3 Physical Degradation Model
Auditable Collection Schedule & Estate Rider
ID Software Title Year Format Cost Basis Fair Market Bitrot Risk Horizon Integrity Status Action

Compounding media risk and fixture assumptions

Read the explanation

This ledger is an illustrative collection scenario, not an appraisal or a measurement of real disk integrity. For its selected System Shock floppy entry, the saved annual loss assumption is four point eight percent. Ten years in the vault regime retains point nine five two raised to ten, about sixty one point one percent. Multiplying the saved three hundred ten dollar value by that fraction gives about one hundred eighty nine dollars fifty five. The remaining value is a modeled fraction, not recovered sectors actually tested. Changing storage to basement multiplies that assumed annual rate by two point eight, to thirteen point four four percent. Ten year retention becomes about twenty three point six percent. The vault and basement bars share exactly the same full scale, making the effect of compounding visible. A zero year horizon leaves full integrity regardless of that rate. The storage labels and multipliers are choices in the source, not validated preservation guarantees. Annual storage carry is monthly energy times twelve times the price per kilowatt hour. Thirty eight point five times twelve times point one six five gives seventy six dollars twenty three. Some portfolio numbers instead come from a locked fixture whenever the four original IDs are present, the horizon is ten and the regime is vault. That branch can hide added item values. Export the JSON to inspect the actual collection and calculated fractions. Offline the missing D three chart interrupts rendering before the ledger table, so the numeric and export behavior is partial and the original source is preserved.

Archival Software Media Decay & Valuation Mechanics

How do physical storage regimes and digital re-releases affect out-of-print software valuation and media integrity over time?

This ledger models the ongoing carrying cost, sector decay risk, and collector market exposure of physical software media. It projects sector integrity across user-selected archive horizons using compounding annual decay rates scaled by environmental storage regimes, and estimates portfolio impact when out-of-print software is re-released on modern storefronts.

Decay rates in the tool (such as 4.8% for floppies and 2.0% for CD-ROMs) and storage regime multipliers are illustrative heuristic models, not physical laboratory measurements of individual disk chemistry. Real-world degradation depends on optical dye composition, aluminum layer oxidation, magnetic binder breakdown, drive alignment, and ambient storage conditions.

Try a worked example

Select 'Uncontrolled Basement / Attic (2.8x Decay)' in the Physical Archive Regime dropdown. The annual decay multiplier jumps from 1.0x to 2.8x, scaling the annual decay rate of the active floppy release of System Shock from 4.80% to 13.44% per year. Over a 10-year horizon, its projected sector integrity falls from 61.1% ($190 value) to 23.4% ($73 value), while the 10-Yr Projected Bitrot Loss across the collection increases.

Environmental Impact on Physical Disc Longevity

Optical media longevity depends directly on storage conditions and disc manufacturing type. Mass-produced ROM discs store data in molded pits coated with a reflective aluminum layer; exposure to high ambient humidity and elevated temperatures allows oxygen and moisture to penetrate scratches, cracks, or lacquers, corroding the aluminum into an oxide layer with reduced reflectivity. Care and Handling of CDs and DVDs: How Long Can You Store CDs and DVDs and Use Them Again?

For recordable media such as CD-R and DVD-R, high temperatures and humidity accelerate the natural degradation of the organic dye layer used to store bits, while rewritable phase-change films degrade even faster through heat and repetitive write-erase thermal stress. Care and Handling of CDs and DVDs: How Long Can You Store CDs and DVDs and Use Them Again?

Ledger Math & Re-Release Valuation Shock

For each cataloged artifact, remaining sector integrity fraction S after horizon t is calculated as S = (1 - r * m)^t, where r is the format baseline annual bitrot risk and m is the storage regime multiplier (0.4x for cold LTO, 0.6x for ZFS scrubbed NAS, 1.0x for climate vault, and 2.8x for basement storage). Projected bitrot loss is evaluated as Market Value * (1 - S).

When out-of-print software returns to commercial distribution on digital storefronts, scarcity-driven collector premiums collapse. The model discounts re-released titles by the configurable storefront shock percentage, while applying a partial risk factor to remaining unreleased abandonware titles based on their estimated commercial re-release probability.

Sources and further reading
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