ATLANTA

Ronald Acuña Jr. Statcast Trajectory & Leverage Simulator

Projected Distance 438 FT HOME RUN (30/30 PARKS)
Exit Velocity 109.5 MPH HARD-HIT (98th %ile)
Peak Height (Apex) 92 FT MAX TRAJECTORY
Hang Time 4.8 SEC FLIGHT DURATION
WPA Impact +12.7% LEVERAGE INDEX 1.85
Statcast Ballistics Controls
Exit Velocity 109.5 mph
Launch Angle 28°
Spray Angle 12° (Pull RF)
Backspin Rate 2400 rpm
Game Situation & Win Odds
BOTTOM 7TH • 1 OUT BASES EMPTY
OPPONENT
4
ATLANTA BRAVES
3 (WAS 2)
Braves Win Probability 31.2% (Was 18.5%)
Exit Vel Percentile 98th
Hard-Hit Threshold 109.5 / 95.0 MPH

Launch components, discrete flight, and authored outcome rules

Read the explanation

The saved simulator first converts exit speed from miles per hour to feet per second using one point four six six six seven. For an illustrative sixty mile per hour launch, speed is about eighty eight feet per second. At thirty degrees elevation and zero spray angle, horizontal speed is about seventy six point two one and vertical speed forty four feet per second. Lateral speed is zero. The two component bars share four pixels per foot per second, about three hundred four point eight four and one hundred seventy six pixels. These components initialize a trajectory three feet above ground. This illustrates the source equation, not a verified athlete measurement or prediction. Flight advances in hundredth of a second steps. At each step, the source computes the speed magnitude, then drag and lift proportional to its square. Holding all coefficients fixed, doubling speed multiplies those terms by four. The bars show one and four relative units at ninety pixels per unit. Spin changes the lift coefficient: two thousand revolutions per minute gives point one five, and four thousand gives point three. The source applies vertical lift using the original launch angle cosine. It updates velocity before position, stops below ground or at ten seconds, rounds horizontal distance and apex, and rounds hang time to one decimal. This is an authored numerical model; its units, coefficients and physical accuracy have not been independently validated. The outcome function is a separate ordered rule set. Its home-run branch requires rounded distance at least three hundred eighty five feet and launch angle between eighteen and forty two degrees. It assigns thirty one point two percent from a fixed eighteen point five percent baseline: a difference of twelve point seven percentage points. At the same illustrative three hundred eighty five feet but ten degree angle, the first branch fails and the at-least-three-hundred-fifty branch assigns twenty four point five percent, a six point zero percentage point difference. Bars use ten pixels per percentage point, widths one hundred eighty five, three hundred twelve and two hundred forty five. These fixed probabilities are authored labels, not empirically validated win probability estimates. The source also says thirty out of thirty parks without a park-by-park calculation. That claim is not established by this code.

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