🎯 3-Tranche Capital Allocation Planner
📉 Price Continuum & Tripwires
🤖 Fundamental AI Monetization & Multiple Stress-Tester
🧮 12–18 Month Return Scenarios vs Tripwires
| Scenario | Target Price | Return from Basis | Implied P/E Multiple | Key Thesis Driver | Probability Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐻 Bear Case | $188.00 | -32.03% | 7.5x | AI monetization stalled, freemium conversion flat, Wadhwani exit creates execution drift | % |
| ⚖️ Base Case | $322.00 | +16.42% | 13.2x | Core ARR maintains 12.5%, FCF stays ~$10.3B, modest Firefly credit expansion | % |
| 🐂 Bull Case | $439.00 | +58.72% | 18.0x | AI ARR hits $1B+, Freemium conversion accelerates, operating margin holds ~45% | % |
| Weighted Expected Value | $330.30 | +19.42% | 13.5x | Risk-adjusted expected value across user weightings | |
Leadership Turnover Risk
Departure of David Wadhwani creates strategic execution risk during pricing transition.
Generative Credit Cost Drag
High model inference costs could pressure historical 45% non-GAAP operating margin.
Failure Corridor ($204–$218)
A breakdown below $204 signals structural thesis invalidation and demands full stop-loss exit.
FY27 Payoff Timing
Patience required: massive enterprise AI seat expansion may lag consumer adoption by 12+ months.
Capital-weighted share arithmetic and fixture overrides
Read the explanation
This video explains saved calculator code, not current Adobe pricing, valuation or an investment recommendation. The generic branch includes pending and executed tranches, excluding skipped ones. It divides budget according to each active allocation weight over the active weight sum, then divides each capital amount by its entry price to obtain shares. In an illustrative two-tranche example with total budget six hundred, equal capital and prices one hundred and two hundred, three and one point five shares total four point five. Blended price is six hundred divided by four point five, about one hundred thirty three point three three, not the arithmetic price mean one hundred fifty. Bars share two pixels per price unit, widths about two hundred sixty six point six seven and three hundred. Pending allocation therefore participates in the planned blend; it does not prove an actual executed portfolio. A special canonical branch bypasses the generic share calculation. It checks three prices, their executed-pending-pending statuses and thirty thousand budget, then assigns stored blended price two hundred seventy six point five eight and shares one hundred eight point four seven. It also overrides bear, base and bull percentage changes with minus thirty two point zero three, sixteen point four two and fifty eight point seven two. That condition does not check allocation weights or valuation targets. Editing one of those unchecked inputs can therefore leave the stored metrics unchanged while the canonical branch still matches. The illustrative bars show positive sixteen point four two and fifty eight point seven two at five pixels per percentage point, widths eighty two point one and two hundred ninety three point six. These are authored fixture values, not verified return estimates. Outside that fixture, target change is target minus blended price, divided by blended price and multiplied by one hundred, rounded to two decimals. The risk reward label sums nonnegative bull and base changes, divides by absolute bear change, and multiplies by point nine nine seven five, then rounds. In an illustrative scenario with twenty percent base, forty percent bull and thirty percent downside, this gives sixty divided by thirty times point nine nine seven five, or one point nine nine five, displayed two point zero zero. Bars at one hundred twenty pixels per ratio unit show two hundred thirty nine point four before rounding and two hundred forty after. This label is not a probability-weighted expected return. Zero downside returns zero in this formula. Verdict text separately depends on executed-tranche count and planned blend; these rules do not establish suitability or forecast performance.