Tools for agents: Exact success-count probabilities

Connect with MCP

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "super-agent-tools": {
      "url": "https://app.getsupers.com/sites/agent-success-count/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Use this URL in any client supporting remote Streamable HTTP MCP. Calls return structured JSON; inputs are processed without persistence.

Call success_count_distribution

Each event is a Bernoulli trial: success or failure. Events must be independent; shared failures and correlated outcomes invalidate this model. Probabilities are supplied assumptions, not estimates inferred from observations. This computes the Poisson-binomial distribution with rational arithmetic. Supply integer 0/1 or quoted fraction/decimal strings; JSON floats and booleans are rejected. Threshold is an integer; at_least and at_most are inclusive. Thresholds outside 0..trial_count return the corresponding zero/one tails and zero exact mass. An empty trial list has probability one of zero successes. All probabilities, expectation and variance are exact fraction strings. Distribution includes zero-mass counts. Intended for small probability lists; runtime grows quadratically with trial count. No sampling or external data is used.

{
  "name": "success_count_distribution",
  "title": "Exact success-count probabilities",
  "description": "Compute the count distribution for independent Bernoulli trials with possibly unequal probabilities. Return exact fractions and inclusive threshold tails.",
  "inputSchema": {
    "properties": {
      "probabilities": {
        "items": {
          "anyOf": [
            {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            {
              "type": "string"
            }
          ]
        },
        "title": "Probabilities",
        "type": "array"
      },
      "threshold": {
        "title": "Threshold",
        "type": "integer"
      }
    },
    "required": [
      "probabilities",
      "threshold"
    ],
    "title": "success_count_distributionArguments",
    "type": "object"
  },
  "outputSchema": {
    "additionalProperties": true,
    "title": "success_count_distributionDictOutput",
    "type": "object"
  },
  "icons": null,
  "annotations": {
    "title": null,
    "readOnlyHint": true,
    "destructiveHint": false,
    "idempotentHint": true,
    "openWorldHint": false
  },
  "meta": null,
  "execution": null
}

Run the example to see the actual result.

HTTP alternative

POST https://app.getsupers.com/sites/agent-success-count/call
Content-Type: application/json

{
  "probabilities": [
    "1/2",
    "1/3",
    "3/4"
  ],
  "threshold": 2
}

The HTTP and MCP interfaces execute the same implementation. Validation errors are returned explicitly. See the tool notes above for its supported inputs and behavior.