AI Capex Transition & Value-Capture Matrix

Institutional modeling of AI capital re-allocation from upfront compute buildout to downstream software monetization

Scenario Presets:

Macro & Stack Levers Interactive Cascade

Hyperscaler Capex Runrate ($B/yr) $220B

Capex CAGR (%) 14.5%

Inference Cost Deflation (%/yr) 45.0%

Enterprise AI Adoption CAGR (%) 32.0%

Datacenter Power Premium (%) 18.0%

Hardware Depreciation (Years) 4 yrs

Simulation Horizon (Years) 7 yrs

Enterprise Inflection

Year 4 (2028)

Cumulative Stack Capex

$2,184B

Terminal Software Share

44.8%

Terminal Stack ROIC Spread

+19.2%

AI Value Chain Revenue Pool Migration ($B/yr) D3 Dynamic Stream

Semiconductor & Hardware

Energy & Power Infrastructure

Cloud Platform & Models

Vertical Enterprise Software

Layer Return on Invested Capital (ROIC %) Trajectory Capital Efficiency Shift

AI Technology Stack Long-Term Returns Matrix Sector Economics & Payback

Value Stack Layer	Y1 Revenue ($B)	Terminal Revenue ($B)	Avg Op Margin (%)	Peak ROIC (%)	Terminal ROIC (%)	CapEx Payback (Yrs)