AI Chip Export Policy & Silicon Trade Simulator

Regulatory & GPU Parameters

Policy & Silicon Scenarios

U.S. BIS Export Rule Limits

TPP Ceiling (Total Processing Perf) 4,800

Rule 3A090.a threshold: 2 × MacTOPS × bit length.

Performance Density Limit (PD) 5.92

TPP divided by Die Surface Area (mm²).

Interconnect Bandwidth Cap (GB/s) 900 GB/s

Bidirectional chip-to-chip NVLink clustering cap.

Target GPU Silicon Architecture Preset Architecture Template

Die Surface Area (mm²) 814 mm²

FP8 Tensor Compute (TFLOPS) 296 TFLOPS

Chip Interconnect Bandwidth (GB/s) 900 GB/s

HBM Memory Bandwidth (TB/s) 4.0 TB/s

Datacenter Scale Deployment

Deployment Cluster Size (GPUs) 16,384

Nvidia China Market Share Realization

Calculated TPP 2,368 Cap: 4,800 (-50.7%)

Perf Density (PD) 2.91 Limit: 5.92 (-50.8%)

Interconnect Headroom 900 GB/s At 100% of 900 cap

Est. China Revenue $12.4 B Annualized TAM run-rate

BIS Compliance Frontier Map X: Perf Density | Y: TPP

Silicon Architecture & Throttle Ratio Compute Core vs Memory vs Interconnect

16k-GPU Cluster Training FLOPs 4.85 ExaFLOPs Sufficient for frontier 70B MoE model pretraining in ~28 days.

Interconnect Communication Penalty +18.5% Stalling NVLink bandwidth cap creates all-reduce gradient bottlenecks on larger scale-out nodes.

Domestic Substitution Pressure Moderate (42%) Incentivizes Chinese hyperscalers (Huawei Ascend, Moore Threads) when workaround chips lag flagship perf.

Ready: Preset "Oct 2023 BIS + H20 Custom" loaded with verified compliant parameter bounds.

Policy Architecture & Technical Reference: The Jensen-Trump China Silicon Debate

The Total Processing Performance (TPP) Formula

Enacted by the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (15 CFR §744 / ECCN 3A090), TPP is evaluated as 2 × MacTOPS × bit length. For chips utilizing FP8 tensor calculations, TPP equals FP8 TFLOPS × 8. The threshold of 4,800 was engineered to stop the H100 (TPP 15,912) and A100 (TPP 4,992), prompting Nvidia to devise the specialized H20 with exactly 296 FP8 TFLOPS (TPP 2,368), pairing lower compute with unthrottled 4.0 TB/s HBM3 memory to preserve LLM inference throughput.

Performance Density & The Blackwell "B20" Proposal

To prevent "chiplet stitching" or massive silicon dies running at low clock frequencies, BIS added the Performance Density (PD) metric (TPP ÷ Die Area mm² ≤ 5.92). As Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang engages policymakers, proposed compromises explore enabling modified B20 GPUs featuring Blackwell's advanced packaging while capping FP4/FP8 compute matrices to legally fulfill U.S. national security redlines.