AI Contagion & Systemic Risk Stress Tester

Shock Focal Point

Target Systemic Node

Primary Shock Magnitude 70%

Initial asset write-down & cash burn acceleration

Circular Financing Exposure 65%

% of lab equity backed by cloud credit commitments

Hardware HHI Concentration 85%

Single-supplier fab & packaging vulnerability

Power Interconnect Debt Cushion 25%

Utility equity buffer against long-term unutilized PPA contracts

Regulatory Bail-In Capital Buffer 30%

Basel-style liquid reserve before insolvency triggers

Systemic SRISK (Value-at-Risk)

$284B

Expected systemic capital shortfall

Insolvent / Distressed Nodes

4 / 10

Tier-1 capital depleted below buffer

Circular Counterparty Loss

$118B

Unbacked cloud-for-equity write-offs

Grid / PPA Stranded Debt

$62B

Take-or-pay capacity overhang

Hyperscaler Frontier Lab Hardware/Fab Grid Utility Debt SPV Downstream

Frontier Lab Alpha (Foundational Models)

Role: Foundation Model Architect · High Cash Burn / Cloud Credit Dependent

Capital:$45B

Health:38% (Distressed)

Direct Exposure:$85B

Eisenberg-Noe Clearing Log Round 2 / Settled

[Round 1] Shock injected at Frontier Lab Alpha: 70% burn acceleration creates $38B liquidity shortfall.

[Round 1] Titan Cloud writes down $24.5B in prepaid cloud-equity conversion rights.

[Round 2] Circular AI Venture Fund SPV margin call fails: $32B compute collateral liquidation.

[Round 2] Axiom Silicon absorbs buffer impairment; orders backlogged but fab solvency intact.

Systemically Important AI Providers (SIAP) 10 Tracked Entities

Entity	Tier-1 Buffer	Loss Absorp.	Status

Baseline contagion model initialized. Click 'Inject Contagion Shock' to simulate clearing rounds.