AI Development Pace and Safety Sandbox

Policy Presets Frontier Alignments

Simulation Levers

Chip Production / Compute Scale 85%

Frontier accelerator foundry deployment rate driving raw model parameter growth.

Safety Lab Allocation 25%

Dedicated compute and headcount reserved for mechanistic interpretability and red-teaming.

Regulatory Consensus Speed 40%

Agility of multilateral oversight boards to evaluate releases before weights propagate.

Initial Capability Baseline 78.0

Quarter 0 frontier capability benchmark (human expert ceiling normalized to 100).

Model Calibration Rules

• Final Capability = Base + (0.20 × Chip Rate) − (0.02 × Reg Speed)

• Safety Maturity = (1.50 × Safety Alloc) + (0.10 × Reg Speed)

• Systemic Risk = (Cap − Safety) + (0.20 × Chip Rate) − (0.035 × Reg Speed)

Final Capability 94.2 Benchmark Q12 index

Safety Maturity 41.5 Safeguard score

Systemic Risk Index 68.3 Failure exposure index

Trajectory Profile +52.7 Cap-to-Safety delta

Governance Status Verdict

High Velocity / High Risk

Frontier compute acceleration outstrips safety alignment verification. Critical risk of autonomous recursive breakout and deployment failure.

12-Quarter Trajectory Projection Q0 to Q12

Capability

Safety Maturity

Systemic Risk

Quarterly Progression Telemetry Detailed Step Records

Quarter	Compute Index	Capability	Safety Maturity	Systemic Risk	Alignment Corridor

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