AI Dumping Cascade

Galloway's thesis, stress-tested in real time

S&P 500 Drawdown0.0%
Recession Probability
0%
AI Sector Market Cap$8.0T
Q0Baseline — 33% of corporations already using Chinese open-weight models

AI Dumping Cascade Dynamics

Read the explanation

The simulator models Scott Galloway's thesis: when open-source model quality exceeds seventy, a hundred-fold token price gap triggers rapid corporate switching. Advancing the timeline scrubber drives adoption along a logistic S-curve, collapsing US frontier revenues into deflated enterprise software margins. Because technology comprises forty percent of index weight and capital expenditure anchors GDP, revenue contraction elevates simulated recession probability past sixty percent.

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