MODEL v2.4

Situational Awareness AI Capital & Compute Flow Simulator

Total Cluster Compute 3.80e+26 Total FLOPs (10^26 Peak Capacity)
Power Grid Grid Demand 6.6 GW 82.5% Grid Utilization
Infrastructure Capital Committed $900M 10.0% Strategic Cash Reserve
Projected AGI Milestone Year 2028.4 Target Compute: 6.5 OOM Target
⚡ Capital Transition & Asset Allocation Network
Sankey Node Topology
📈 Logarithmic Compute Scaling & Power Wall (2024–2030)
FLOP Target vs Grid Limit
🎛️ Interactive Thesis Parameters & Allocation Handles
Adjust inputs to observe dynamic cluster capabilities and capital reallocation
Private Compute Hardware Allocation 55%
Direct investment into GPU/TPU clusters & custom silicon supply chains.
Energy Grid & Nuclear Contract Weight 35%
PPA power purchase agreements, nuclear SMRs, and gigawatt grid buildout.
Strategic Cash Reserve Weight 10%
Strategic liquidity held to seize distressed energy/chip commitments.
Public Equities Portfolio Weight 0%
Residual legacy public stock holdings (Auto-derived from capital balance).
Compute Scaling OOM Target 6.5 OOM
Orders of Magnitude increase in effective training compute over GPT-4 baseline.
Gigawatt Power Grid Capacity Limit 8.0 GW
Hard bottleneck threshold for total region grid power availability.
💡
Aschenbrenner Thesis Synthesis: Capital allocation is fully shifted out of public equities into private AI compute assets and nuclear energy purchase contracts. At 6.6 GW grid demand, cluster utilization is 82.5% of maximum regional power limits, supporting an AGI milestone projection around 2028.4.

Compute Scaling, Power Bottlenecks, and Capital Allocation

Read the explanation

The model allocates capital across compute clusters and energy infrastructure, tracking logarithmic scaling up to twenty thirty. Private compute allocation and target orders of magnitude determine power demand. As demand approaches regional grid limits, available capacity caps throughput. When power demand exceeds regional grid capacity, the engine imposes an explicit penalty, shifting the projected milestone year along the timeline.

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