Simulation Presets
Policy Baselines
Antitrust Coordination Variables
75%
Depth of private backchannel agreements regarding model release timing, hardware throttling, and joint safety milestones.
88%
Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) proxy: joint compute and revenue share of participating frontier labs.
Safety Framing Rhetoric
Open-Weights Model Exclusion
Pact imposes restrictions or boycotts on non-participating open-source models.
Antitrust Exposure Index
High (84/100)
Threshold for Clayton & Sherman Act triggers
Formal Investigation Risk
92%
FTC / DOJ civil investigative demand (CID) likelihood
Primary Statutory Exposure
Section 1 Sherman Act / Implicit Boycott
Per se illegal market output restriction or joint concerted action
Remediation Status
High regulatory vulnerability due to exclusionary slowdown framing.
Legal defense and structuring posture
Regulatory Scrutiny & Collusion Vector Graph
Force-directed network of regulatory agencies (FTC, DOJ, EU DG COMP) tracking AI lab pacts
Regulator Agency
Frontier AI Lab
Collusion Vector
Antitrust Theory of Harm Breakdown
When AI firms publicly or privately coordinate on delaying releases under the banner of a "slowdown," antitrust enforcers interpret this behavior not as benign safety governance, but as an agreement among competitors to restrict market output. Under Section 1 of the Sherman Act, horizontal output restrictions and concerted refusals to deal (excluding open-source model releases) carry stringent liability risks.
Enforcement Vector: DOJ Antitrust Division & FTC Joint Guidance on Market Foreclosure; EU Article 101 TFEU (Cartel and horizontal agreements restriction).