AI Slowdown Antitrust Policy Simulator & Regulatory Exposure Analyzer

Simulation Presets Policy Baselines

Antitrust Coordination Variables

Lab Coordination Level 75%

Depth of private backchannel agreements regarding model release timing, hardware throttling, and joint safety milestones.

Combined Frontier Market Share 88%

Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) proxy: joint compute and revenue share of participating frontier labs.

Safety Framing Rhetoric

Voluntary "Slowdown" Accord

Explicit agreement to delay releases or cap training compute without clear technical specifications.

Open Security Standards Consortium

Objective benchmark thresholds (red-teaming, cyber defense) accessible to third parties.

National Security Alignment

Coordination under state oversight / export control alignment (Noerr-Pennington defense).

Open-Weights Model Exclusion

Pact imposes restrictions or boycotts on non-participating open-source models.

Antitrust Exposure Index High (84/100) Threshold for Clayton & Sherman Act triggers

Formal Investigation Risk 92% FTC / DOJ civil investigative demand (CID) likelihood

Primary Statutory Exposure Section 1 Sherman Act / Implicit Boycott Per se illegal market output restriction or joint concerted action

Remediation Status High regulatory vulnerability due to exclusionary slowdown framing. Legal defense and structuring posture

Regulatory Scrutiny & Collusion Vector Graph

Force-directed network of regulatory agencies (FTC, DOJ, EU DG COMP) tracking AI lab pacts

Regulator Agency

Frontier AI Lab

Collusion Vector

Antitrust Theory of Harm Breakdown

When AI firms publicly or privately coordinate on delaying releases under the banner of a "slowdown," antitrust enforcers interpret this behavior not as benign safety governance, but as an agreement among competitors to restrict market output. Under Section 1 of the Sherman Act, horizontal output restrictions and concerted refusals to deal (excluding open-source model releases) carry stringent liability risks.

Enforcement Vector: DOJ Antitrust Division & FTC Joint Guidance on Market Foreclosure; EU Article 101 TFEU (Cartel and horizontal agreements restriction).