1. The Four Epochs of Tech Trades
Market-beating technology funds outperform not by buy-and-holding initial hardware winners indefinitely, but by preemptively recognizing when capital expenditure cycles saturate foundational suppliers and shift downstream.
- Phase 1: Enablers & Pick-and-Shovel infrastructure enjoy explosive multiple expansion.
- Phase 2: Physical boundaries (power generation, substation transformers, water cooling) become the primary bottleneck.
- Phase 3: Investors demand tangible software earnings to validate trillions in enterprise datacenter buildouts.