AI Tutoring Pilot Cohort & Benchmark Comparator 171 Public Schools Pilot

Estimated Pilot Mean 482.0 +97.0 pts vs National
Effect Size (Cohen's d) +0.42σ PISA ~20-25 pts/0.1σ
Germany Benchmark Parity 96.8% -16.0 pts to 498
Cost Efficiency Ratio $0.43 Cost per PISA point gain

Math Score Distribution Shifts (PISA Scale)

Simulated pilot cohort kernel density vs baseline and international OECD targets

National Baseline (Mean 385)
171-School Pilot Cohort
Germany OECD Benchmark (498)
Sweden OECD Benchmark (502)

School Stratum Performance Deltas

Strata Group Schools Students Baseline Projected Mean Effect Size (σ) Benchmark Status

Simulating AI Tutoring Dosage and Score Distribution Shifts

Read the explanation

In the pilot cohort model, baseline student test scores follow a normal distribution centered at three hundred eighty-five points. Increasing weekly dosage scales effect size with non-linear diminishing returns, shifting projected mean scores upwards toward international OECD benchmarks. Toggling teacher facilitation and rural boosters adds additive effect gains, lifting the projected mean to four hundred thirty point one points at ninety-three cents per point.

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