AL Cy Young Race Probability & Sabermetric Explorer

Model Favorite Dylan Cease

Model Gap Metric 0.30 ERA / 37 K

Cease Model Prob 44.2%

Schlittler Model Prob 38.5%

Remaining Season Trajectory Simulator Simulate 1 to 6 remaining starts

Preset Scenarios

Dylan Cease 3 Starts Left

Remaining IP/Start 6.0 IP

Proj. ERA in Rem. IP 3.15

Proj. K/9 Rate 11.8

Cam Schlittler 3 Starts Left

Remaining IP/Start 5.2 IP

Proj. ERA in Rem. IP 2.85

Proj. K/9 Rate 10.5

5-Axis Sabermetric Profile Radar

Dylan Cease

Cam Schlittler

Historical Winner Baseline

Final Projected Stat Line Matrix

Metric	Cease (Proj)	Schlittler (Proj)	Hist Winner
ERA (Lower Better)	3.15	2.85	2.60
WHIP (Lower Better)	1.08	1.02	0.98
Strikeouts (K)	238	196	225
Innings Pitched (IP)	183.0	165.6	190.0
Est. FIP	3.02	3.10	2.75
Est. Pitching WAR	5.2	4.5	6.1

Model Voting Probabilities vs Polymarket Market Odds

Dylan Cease - Sabermetric Model Prob 44.2%

Dylan Cease - Polymarket Implied Odds 38.0%

Cam Schlittler - Sabermetric Model Prob 38.5%

Cam Schlittler - Polymarket Implied Odds 29.0%

Rest of AL Field Probability 17.3%

Sabermetric Formula Key & Model Assumptions

Combines ERA (30%), Strikeout Volume (25%), IP Workload (20%), WHIP (15%), and WAR (10%) normalized against historical award winners.

Estimates pitcher run prevention independent of defense: ((13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP) - 2*K) / IP) + 3.10.

Compares market crowd expectations against quantitative sabermetric trajectory models to highlight value gaps.