AL East Race Probability Lab | TB (87-58) vs NYY (83-62)

Race Controls 162-Game Season

★ TB Rays

87-58

Win Pct: .600

⚾ NY Yankees

83-62

Win Pct: .572

Remaining Schedule Per Team 17 Games

Direct Head-to-Head Games (TB vs NYY) 3 Games

Yankees Projected Finish Pace 60%

Rays Projected Finish Pace 56%

Scenario Presets

The Catch Formula: With TB at 87-58 and NYY at 83-62 with 17 games remaining, the Yankees must erase a 4.0 game deficit. Any combination of Rays wins and Yankees losses totaling 14 eliminates New York from AL East contention.

AL East Pennant Odds & Standings Telemetry ● LIVE MODEL

Games Back (GB)

4.0

TB Magic Number

NYY Elimination #

NYY Catch Odds

28.5%

Tampa Bay Title Odds: 71.5% Yankees Title Odds: 28.5%

71.5%

28.5%

Projected Final Win Distribution (1,000 Seasons) Solid = TB, Dashed = NYY

Scenario Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	New York Yankees	Differential
Current Record	87-58	83-62	TB +4.0 GB
Current Win Pct	0.6000	0.5724	+0.0276
Projected Final Record (Mean)	97-65	93-69	TB +4.0 Wins
Tiebreaker Advantage	Ahead in season series	Must sweep H2H	TB holds edge

Pennant Race Odds & Magic Number Mechanics

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Read the explanation

In the American League East pennant race, Tampa Bay leads New York with eighty-seven wins against eighty-three, establishing a four game advantage with seventeen games remaining. The clinch threshold is quantified by the magic number: one hundred sixty-three minus eighty-seven Rays wins minus sixty-two Yankee losses yields fourteen. Simulating one thousand season finishes with calibrated finish paces yields projected win distributions, leaving New York with a twenty-eight point five percent catch probability. Selecting the hot streak preset ramps the Yankees projected finish pace up to seventy-five percent, expanding their simulated title chances substantially.