Race Controls 162-Game Season
★ TB Rays
87-58
Win Pct: .600
⚾ NY Yankees
83-62
Win Pct: .572
17 Games
3 Games
60%
56%
Scenario Presets
The Catch Formula: With TB at 87-58 and NYY at 83-62 with 17 games remaining, the Yankees must erase a 4.0 game deficit. Any combination of Rays wins and Yankees losses totaling 14 eliminates New York from AL East contention.
AL East Pennant Odds & Standings Telemetry ● LIVE MODEL
Games Back (GB)
4.0
TB Magic Number
14
NYY Elimination #
14
NYY Catch Odds
28.5%
Projected Final Win Distribution (1,000 Seasons)
Solid = TB, Dashed = NYY
| Scenario Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Record | 87-58 | 83-62 | TB +4.0 GB |
| Current Win Pct | 0.6000 | 0.5724 | +0.0276 |
| Projected Final Record (Mean) | 97-65 | 93-69 | TB +4.0 Wins |
| Tiebreaker Advantage | Ahead in season series | Must sweep H2H | TB holds edge |