Alabama (-25.5) Spread Margin & Game Script Simulator

Heavy Favorite Alabama

Spread: -25.5

Underdog Opponent

Spread: +25.5

Current Scoring Differential

+28 pts (Alabama)

Cover Cushion (vs 25.5)

+2.5 pts

Spread Verdict

COVER (+2.5 pts above -25.5 line)

Presets:

Interactive 100-Yard Drive Timeline Manipulate drive outcomes below

Collegiate 100-Yd Field Drive Map Alabama Drives: 12 • Opponent Drives: 12

#	Qtr	Possession	Start Yd	Result	Pts	Running Score

ATS MARGIN NEEDLE (-25.5 LINE)

Alabama Projected Pts: 42

Opponent Projected Pts: 14

Simulated Scoring Margin: +28 pts

Required Line: -25.5

Backdoor Vulnerability Risk: Moderate (Garbage-time TD threshold: Underdog <= 17 pts)

4Q Backup Sub Fatigue: Active (Q4 clock drain)

NCAA FBS home favorites of -24.0 to -27.5 pts:

51.4% ATS for 24.0-27.0 pt home favorites n=482 games

Historically, 34% of failed covers on 24+ pt spreads happen via 4th quarter opponent garbage-time scores against second-team defenses.