Alien Visitation Drake & Bayesian Probability Simulator

Generative 2D Galaxy Map (100,000 Light-Year Scale)

[Drag vector to speed up transit]

Active Signals: 0

Avg Light Cone: 0 ly

Transit Velocity: 0.10 c

Active Civilizations (N)

Milky Way Total

Mean Distance

3,850 ly

Nearest Neighbor

P(Vis. Within 100ly)

0.00042%

Spatial Density Model

Bayesian Posterior

0.038%

Updated Visitation Belief

Interstellar Distance Probability Distribution

Alien Visitation Drake & Bayesian Simulator — STATISTICAL PROOF SUMMARY

Expected Active Civs 64

Mean Distance (LY) 3850

Prob 100 LY Radius 0.00042%

Updated Bayesian Posterior 0.038%

Drake Equation Parameters

Star Formation Rate (R*) 2.0 /yr

Fraction with Planets (fp) 0.80

Habitable Planets / System (ne) 0.40

Fraction Developing Life (fl) 0.20

Fraction Intelligence (fi) 0.10

Fraction Technology (ft) 0.10

Longevity L (Years) 5,000 yr

Bayesian Evidence Updater

Combines Drake prior spatial probability with public poll statistics (@stats_feed) & observational UAP/SETI constraints.

UAP Observational Weight 0.05

Public Poll Prior ("Visited?") 28% Yes