Game Win Probability Swing (Event #24: Alonso 3-Run Homer)
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Clutch Impact Matrix: Late-Inning 3-Run Homeruns
| Scenario | Runners | Inning | Leverage | WP Swing | Run Exp. Added |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Captured) | 1st & 2nd | 8th (2 Out) | 4.82 | +34.5% | +3.24 |
| Average MLB 3-Run HR (Inning 1-5) | 1st & 2nd | Early | 1.15 | +14.2% | +2.18 |
| Walk-off 3-Run Homer | 1st & 2nd | 9th (Down 2) | 6.90 | +78.1% | +3.00 |
| Bases-Empty Solo HR (Average) | None | Late | 1.45 | +8.8% | +0.98 |
Live Situation Analysis: Alonso steps up in the 8th inning with Mets trailing 2-5, runners on 1st & 2nd with 2 outs (Leverage Index 4.82). The 3-run home run instantly levels the score at 5-5, boosting team win expectancy by +34.5% in a critical late-game juncture.