Atlantic Thermohaline Cross-Section (2D Hydrodynamics)
Depth: 0-4000m | Equator (Left) to Subpolar North (Right)
↑ Tropical Heat Absorption
← Northward Saline Surface Drift
❄ Subpolar Melt Cap
↓ North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) Sinking
Stommel Phase Plane
Equilibrium vs Trajectory
AMOC Strength (Sv) vs Year
Year: 0 / 150
Scientific Telemetry & State Detection
●
Active Vigorous Overturning (On-State)
Saline advection compensates thermal warming.
AMOC Flow Rate
18.5 Sv
100% of baseline (18.5 Sv)
Salinity Advection Deficit
-0.00 PSU
Density contrast feedback
North Atlantic Freshwater Anomaly
0.00 Sv
Ice-melt capping sensitivity
Tipping Lead Time / State
Stable
Critical Rate Threshold: 3.2°C/cen
Climate Scenarios
Dynamical Forcing Parameters
4.5 °C / century
Key factor: Rapid heating caps subpolar convection before salt advection adjusts.
2.2 °C
Target asymptotic equilibrium surface temperature anomaly.
0.045 Sv/°C
Subpolar meltwater run-off into Nordic and Labrador seas per degree warming.
1.0x (150 yr timeline)
R-Tipping vs B-Tipping Mechanism
Rate-Induced Tipping (R-Tipping): Even when absolute temperature remains below the catastrophic static saddle-node bifurcation (∼3.0°C), crossing a critical warming rate (>3.2°C/century) forces AMOC collapse. Surface buoyancy outpaces deep salt transport, breaking the positive salt-advection feedback loop.