Warm Pool SST Δ
+1.25 °C
0°–15°N, 100°–160°E
Amundsen Sea Low Δ
-6.8 hPa
Geopotential deepening
Moisture Inflow Δ
+22.4 %
West Antarctic snowfall
Ice Shelf Basal Melt
-14.1 %
CDW Upwelling blocked
Net Mass Loss Rate
-92 Gt/yr
Base: -150 Gt/yr
Loss Slowdown
38.7 %
Mitigated pacing
Rossby Wave-Train Teleconnection Path
Ray Delay: 14 Days
Warm Pool SST Anomaly
+1.25°C
Convective Heating Pulse
480 GW
Physical Mechanism: Multiyear sea-surface warming in the Tropical Warm Pool drives intense upper-tropospheric divergence. This triggers an arching atmospheric Rossby wave train that propagates poleward across the South Pacific, deepening the Amundsen Sea Low off West Antarctica.
Antarctic Sector Mass-Balance Engine
Cumulative Anomaly Ledger
| Sector | Accumulation (Snow) | Basal Melt (CDW) | Net Mass Balance |
|---|
Mass Loss Slowdown: Deepened cyclonic circulation around the Amundsen Sea Low enhances southerly onshore winds that increase snow accumulation while pushing Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) away from coastal ice shelf cavities.
End-to-End Tropical-to-Polar Teleconnection Chain
Nature Observation Framework
1. Warm Pool Heating
Tropical convective heating anomaly triggers deep tropospheric mass divergence at 0°–15°N.
2. Rossby Wave Ray
Planetary wave packets propagate along great circle trajectories across the South Pacific (~14 days).
3. Amundsen Low Deepening
Cyclonic anomaly strengthens the subpolar low (-6.8 hPa), altering regional geopotential height gradients.
4. Southerly Wind Alteration
Anomalous zonal winds generate coastal moisture influx and alter Ekman transport along the continental shelf.
5. CDW Intrusion Blocked
Warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water is kept off the continental shelf, cutting ice shelf basal melt (-14.1%).
6. Mass Loss Deceleration
Net Antarctic mass loss rate drops from -150 Gt/yr down to -92 Gt/yr (38.7% deceleration).