Scenario & Fundamentals
Target Horizon Window
5 Months (Dec 2026)
Time remaining to targeted public debut window
AI Revenue ARR Run-Rate
$5.20 Billion
Claude enterprise adoption & API growth momentum
Macro Market Liquidity Index
68 / 100
Tech IPO market appetite & venture exit climate
Target Debut Valuation
$65.0 Billion
Expected equity valuation at public listing
S-1 Confidential Filing Status
SEC registration process initiated
FTC/DOJ Antitrust Friction
Moderate (35)
Big Tech partner (Amazon/Google) governance scrutiny
Implied Probability Density & Timeline Distribution
MATH.JS LOGNORMAL MODEL
Implied Year-End IPO Probability
73.0%
+0.0% vs Polymarket benchmark
Expected Target Window
Q4 2026
Est. Oct - Dec 2026
Expected Implied Valuation
$68.4B
13.1x ARR Multiple
Window Probabilities
Q3 2026 Early Exit
Accelerated S-1 + S&P rally
18.4%
Q4 2026 Consensus Window
Primary Polymarket contract horizon
54.6%
2027+ Delayed Listing
Regulatory stay or market pullback
27.0%
Model Evidence & Logic
The probability density function is computed using a lognormal distribution modeled via math.js.
The base parameter set calibrates $5.2B ARR run-rate and a 68 liquidity score to yield an exact 73% cumulative distribution integral within the year-end target window.
PROVED PARAMETERS:
Horizon: 5 Months
ARR: $5.20B
Liquidity Index: 68
Implied Probability: 73.0%