Margin of Error
±3.05%
at 95% Confidence
Standard Error (SE)
1.56%
σ = √[p(1-p)/n]
Confidence Interval
38.95% - 45.05%
Width: 6.10 points
Theoretical Approval Probability Density Curve
Normal Approximation to Binomial
Monte Carlo Poll Trial Simulation
1,000 Simulated Virtual Polls (n=1000)
Distribution of observed approval ratings across repeated sampling from an underlying population with p=42.0%.
Demographic Subgroup Approval Rating Variance
Comparing sampling error and confidence bands across representative demographic subsamples.
| Demographic Segment | Sample Size (n) | Observed Approval | Standard Error | Margin of Error | 95% CI Range |
|---|