Arch Turnover Probability & Play Geometry Lab

Play Configuration QB: Arch

Target Pass Depth 38 yds

Throw Velocity 48 mph

Horizontal Hash Offset +6 yds (Right)

Defensive Coverage Shell

Defender Reaction Latency 0.24 s

Tactical Presets

LIVE PASSING WINDOW CANVAS

Drag the receiver target (gold ring) to change pass trajectory & deep safety closing window

QB (Arch)

Target Receiver

Ohio State Defenders

Defensive Closing Speed: 19.4 mph

Quantitative HUD

Completion Probability

34.2%

Tight-window catch probability given ball flight time and closing defender angle.

Turnover / Pick Risk

28.5%

Predicted interception odds when defender undercut trajectory intersects catch cylinder.

Expected Play Value (EPA)

12.1 yds

Net expected yardage weighing completion upside vs. interception field position loss.

Tactical Geometry Analysis

Under Cover-3 Robber, the free safety breaks on the ball while the robber linebacker matches underneath. Ball flight time allows 1.46s of defender closing, resulting in an aggressive contested window.

Pass Trajectory Flight Time and Closing Windows

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Read the explanation

Every throw is governed by the ball's travel distance and initial velocity, establishing a precise flight duration. During ball flight, defensive coverage shells converge. Longer hang time expands the area undercut defenders can reach. Adjusting the depth slider to thirty-eight yards drops completion odds to 34.2 percent while turnover risk reaches 28.5 percent.