Macro Scenario Regime
1997_Thailand_Trigger
Thailand
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Capital Outflow Shock
35%
Simulated sudden-stop non-resident liquid portfolio exit
External Interest Rate Hike
+300 bps
US Fed rate escalation increasing USD debt servicing cost
Swap-Line Safeguard Buffer
Inactive (0%)
Transmission Channel:
Unhedged Short-Term External Debt Rollover Squeeze
Asian Financial Crisis Contagion & Buffer Stress Simulator
Evaluate FX reserve depletion trajectories, Greenspan-Guidotti liquidity ratios, and cross-border currency contagion dynamics.
Greenspan-Guidotti Ratio
0.816
FX Reserves / Short-term Debt (Safe: ≥ 1.00)
Reserve Depletion Pace
3.2 mos
Time until complete reserve exhaustion
Peg Defense Status
Broken under 35% sustained outflow shock
Exchange rate regime survival under pressure
Systemic Vulnerability Index
84.2 / 100
Combined macro risk composite score
Foreign Exchange Reserve Depletion Horizon
6-Month Trajectory
Regional Contagion & Spillover Channels
Trade & FX Linkages
Comparative Sovereign Vulnerability Matrix
Live Solvency Simulation
| Economy | Regime | FX Reserves | ST External Debt | Current Acct / GDP | Greenspan-Guidotti | Exhaustion Horizon | Peg Fragility |
|---|
Macroeconomic Transmission Anatomy
In 1997, rigid dollar pegs gave domestic financial institutions a false sense of exchange-rate safety, leading to massive unhedged short-term foreign borrowing for high-speculation domestic real estate and industrial expansions. When Thailand's current account deficit widened to -7.9% of GDP and US interest rates rose, sudden capital stops forced central banks to burn reserves defending overvalued parities until liquidity evaporated, causing severe balance-of-payments insolvencies.