IMF & Central Bank Sovereign Surveillance Model

1997 Asian Financial Crisis Contagion & Modern Buffer Stress Simulator

Directly manipulate Fed rate shocks, currency depreciation, and sudden stop capital flight to observe sovereign liquidity depletion, Greenspan-Guidotti adequacy, and regional contagion dominoes.

Stress Presets:
Comparison View:

Tiger Economy Focus

Pegged (1997) / Managed Float
Thailand (THB / Baht): Epicenter of the July 2, 1997 floating. Carried $37.2B in short-term unhedged private debt against just $31.4B in gross reserves (over $23B locked in forward swap commitments).

Macro Stress Shocks

Interactive Levers
+250 bps
0 bps+200 bps+400 bps
35%
0% (Calm)30% (Severe)60% (Panic)
-45%
0%-35%-75% (Freefall)
Regional Contagion Domino
Propagate neighbor devaluations & risk spreads
CMIM & Bilateral Swaps
Chiang Mai $240B multilateral swap safety net
Deep Local Currency Bonds
Overcomes 'Original Sin' foreign debt bias
Sovereign Resilience State

Thailand (THB) Stress Profile

CRISIS ARMOR INDEX 19 / 100
1997 FX Runway 2.1 Mos Depleted by Month 3
Modern FX Runway 14.8 Mos Adequate (>8 Mos buffer)
1997 Guidotti-Greenspan 0.56x Critical insolvency danger
Modern Guidotti-Greenspan 3.24x Robust (>1.0x threshold)

18-Month FX Reserve Depletion Trajectory

Simulated central bank reserve drain facing capital flight, import payments, and short-term debt redemptions.

Insolvent < 3 Months (1997)
1997 Reserve Path (USD Billions)
Modern 2024 Reserve Path (USD Billions)
100% Greenspan-Guidotti Line (1997)
3-Month Import Cover Floor

Macro Balance Sheet: 1997 vs Contemporary Resilience

IMF Surveillance Data
Vulnerability Metric July 1997 Crisis State Modern Resilience (2024) Structural Consequence

Cross-Border Contagion Topology

Active Domino Cascade

Cross-border financial linkages: speculative shorting, trade devaluations, and panic withdrawals propagate across Tiger hubs.

● Center: Shock Vector --- Financial Spillover Flow

Macroeconomic Mechanics

Foundational Concepts
Greenspan-Guidotti Rule
A sovereign's international foreign exchange reserves should equal at least 100% of short-term external debt (maturity ≤ 1 year) so it can survive an entire year of sudden stop capital cutoffs without foreign borrowing.
The 'Original Sin' of Emerging Debt
In 1997, Asian firms and banks borrowed heavily in unhedged US dollars because local-currency debt markets did not exist. When currencies collapsed, dollar debt exploded relative to domestic earnings.
CMIM & Regional Safety Nets
Created in 2000 and expanded to $240B, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation provides member central banks emergency US dollar and local currency swap liquidity during liquidity panics.

Sovereign Crisis & Resilience Dossier

Audited Macro Vulnerability Assessment

The report below contains real-time calculations from your current shock parameters, comparing 1997 liquidity failure against modern buffers for credit committees and policy simulations.