Country Crossover Fanbase Polarization & Risk Model

A deterministic quantitative stress-test of audience retention under political friction. Evaluate whether cross-format streaming and arena-core loyalty insulate modern artists like Jelly Roll from conventional country radio alienation.

Scenario Presets:

Fanbase Composition 100%

Traditional Radio Listeners 28%

High political sensitivity Est. Churn: 45%

Crossover Streaming Audience 36%

DSP Pop/Acoustic playlisting Est. Churn: 5%

Hip-Hop / Outlaw Rock Fans 22%

Counter-culture discovery Est. Growth: +4%

Touring Core / Diehards 14%

High ticket LTV, narrative bond Est. Churn: 2%

Alienation Severity Factor 52%

John Rich Hypothesis: A severity ≥ 50% triggers acute boycott threats among traditional terrestrial radio demographics. Modern crossover elasticity measures how streaming and live touring neutralize this.

Baseline Audience Size (Millions) 14.5M

Net Audience Retention 81.2% -2.7M of 14.5M fans

Streaming Rev Index 93.4% DSP algorithm resilience

Tour Velocity Risk Low Risk 91% projected capacity

John Rich Ratio 1.63x Buffer over 50% baseline

Demographic Retention vs. Churn Trajectory

Pre-controversy allocation vs. surviving post-polarization baseline

Resilient Buffer

Commercial Stress-Test Verdict Crossover Protection Active

While John Rich accurately identifies that 45% or more of traditional terrestrial country radio listeners disengage during sharp political commentary, Jelly Roll’s multi-genre streaming footprint (36%) and dedicated live touring core (14%) contain total audience contraction to just 18.8% net loss. Non-traditional discovery buffers prevent catastrophic commercial disruption.

Auto-persisted to local session state.