Headline Nonfarm Payrolls
+162k
+37k Surprise
Aug Consensus: 125k | Establishment survey
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
+0.4pp vs trough
12-mo Low: 3.7% | Household survey
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
0.37%
Below 0.50 Trigger
3mo MA (4.07%) − 12mo Min (3.70%)
Taylor Rule Target Rate
4.42%
−91 bps vs current
Natural r* (0.8%) + 2.7% Core PCE proxy
Macro Scenarios & Levers
Reported Payrolls (k/mo)
162k
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
Core PCE Inflation
2.7%
Estimated Neutral Rate (r*)
0.8%
Federal Funds Rate Corridor & Forward Taylor Path
Current Target Range: 5.25% - 5.50% Current Corridor Upper (5.33% eff)
Modeled Taylor Prescription
Market Implied Glidepath
FOMC Dual Mandate Stance Bias
Cautious Ease / Hawkish Hold Bias
August's +162k nonfarm print exceeds the 125k consensus (+37k surprise), dampening emergency 50bps cut calls. At 4.1% unemployment, the Sahm Rule indicator stands at 0.37pp, remaining safely under the 0.50pp recession threshold. Taylor Rule target sits at 4.42%, arguing for measured 25bps calibrations rather than rapid easing.
| Indicator Metric | Aug Print | Modeled Value | Policy Benchmark | Macro Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payroll Delta | +162,000 | +162,000 | 100,000 Breakeven | Above Replacement (+62k) |
| Household vs Estab. Gap | 4.1% Unemp | 4.1% | 3.7% Cycle Trough | Controlled Normalization |
| Sahm Indicator (3mo MA - 12mo Min) | 0.37% | 0.367% | 0.50% Trigger | No Recession Triggered |
| Taylor Prescribed Funds Rate | 4.42% | 4.42% | 5.33% Eff Fed Funds | −91 bps Policy Slack |