Reuters Benchmark Analysis

Australian Housing Completion Gap & Builder Feasibility Model

Modeling the macroeconomic disconnect between Australian housing approvals and actual completions. Simulate builder margin compression, site viability thresholds, the 70% apartment approval stall, and state projections against the 1.2M home national target by 2029.

Pre-Configured Macro & Policy Scenarios:
Micro Developer Feasibility Pro-Forma Unit Baseline: Standard Apartment Project
32.5%
7.5%
5.0%
18.0%
Modeled Margin
4.2%
Target Margin
18.0%
Stalled Approvals
70.0%
Project Status
HIGH STALL RISK
Developer Cost Stack vs Net Profit ($ per typical dwelling):
Macro 1.2M Housing Target Trajectory (2024-2029) Target: 240k/yr
National Target
1,200,000
Projected Completions
842,000
National Deficit
358,000
Cost Cut Required
14.3%
Cumulative Completions vs 1.2 Million Target:
State-by-State Delivery Deficit Projections (2029):
State / Territory Target Share Projected Homes Completion Deficit Stall Level
2D Sensitivity Matrix: Required Cost Reduction vs. Price Growth Threshold for 18% Bank Margin

This matrix computes net developer margin across varying cost reductions and sales price changes. Highlighted cells indicate combinations where builder margins meet senior debt underwriting criteria (>18.0%).

Canonical Model Proof State: Status: HIGH STALL RISK | Projected Completions: 842,000 | Deficit: 358,000
Break-even Cost Cut Required: 14.3%
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