9-Quarter Projected CET1 Capital Trajectory vs. Regulatory Thresholds
Quarterly Common Equity Tier 1 path through hypothetical supervisory downturn
Projected CET1
SCB Hurdle (7.5%)
Statutory Min (4.5%)
Quarterly Capital & Credit Provision Trajectory
Regional Financial Corp
| Quarter | Unemployment | CRE Price Index | CET1 Ratio | Capital Buffer State | Cumulative Losses | Lending Delta |
|---|
Supervisory Stress Testing Governance: Under Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST) and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's 2026 supervisory framework updates, banks must model adverse macro shocks without relying on aggressive capital buybacks. If CET1 drops below the combined 4.5% statutory baseline plus firm-specific Stress Capital Buffer (SCB, minimum 2.5%, default 3.0% standard benchmark hurdle = 7.5%), mandatory distribution limitations take immediate legal effect.