Barstool Sports AI Timeline Simulator
@barstoolsports: “Right now there’s a 0% chance ai will kill us. At the end of the decade there’s a 10% chance”
2030 Baseline Risk 10.0% Source end-of-decade quote
Active Target Probability 10.0% Year 2030 forecast
Dominant Factor Decadal Scaling Primary growth pressure
Risk Status Low-Moderate Growth @barstoolsports

AI Doom Probability Curve (2026 – 2035)

Simulated Curve
Confidence Band
Barstool 2030 Anchor (10%)

Source Context & Sports Math

Captured from @BarstoolSports on X quoting Pardon My Take: “Right now there’s a 0% chance ai will kill us. At the end of the decade there’s a 10% chance”. This establishes a clean empirical baseline anchor: 0% in 2026 scaling into 10% by 2030.

Technological Stress-Testing

Using compound progression with compute constraints and embodiment dampening, this tool maps how accelerated algorithmic breakthroughs or regulatory power caps shift the timeline curve beyond 2030.

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