AI Doom Probability Curve (2026 – 2035)
Simulated Curve
Confidence Band
Barstool 2030 Anchor (10%)
Source Context & Sports Math
Captured from @BarstoolSports on X quoting Pardon My Take: “Right now there’s a 0% chance ai will kill us. At the end of the decade there’s a 10% chance”. This establishes a clean empirical baseline anchor: 0% in 2026 scaling into 10% by 2030.
Technological Stress-Testing
Using compound progression with compute constraints and embodiment dampening, this tool maps how accelerated algorithmic breakthroughs or regulatory power caps shift the timeline curve beyond 2030.