Projected Dist 404 ft
Apex Height 88 ft
Hang Time 4.92 s
Fence Clearance +18.2 ft
Expected BA (xBA) .940
Landing Speed 76 mph
Exit Energy & Launch Classification: Barreled (Optimum Contact)
Target Ballpark Dimension at Angle: 375 ft (LF Fence, 8.0 ft wall)
Magnus Aerodynamic Lift Delta: +34 ft carry from backspin
Estimated Win Probability Added (WPA): +0.88 (9th Inning Walk-Off HR)

How Statcast & Physics Determine Walk-Off Moments

1. Drag & Terminal Trajectory

A baseball travelling at 105 mph creates a turbulent boundary layer. Drag decellerates the ball rapidly: $F_d = \frac{1}{2} \rho v^2 C_d A$. Without aerodynamic air resistance, a 105 mph hit at 27° would travel over 720 feet; in atmospheric air density, air resistance cuts carry down to 400–415 feet.

Cd ≈ 0.31 | Air Density ρ = 1.204 kg/m³

2. The Magnus Lift Effect

Backspin compresses air underneath the baseball and accelerates airflow over the top, generating vertical lift: $F_L = \frac{1}{2} \rho v^2 C_L A$. At 2,200 rpm, this upward force counters gravity for nearly two seconds of flight, extending hang time and adding 30 to 45 feet of total fence-clearing distance.

CL ≈ (r·ω)/v · spin factor

3. Clutch Barrel Zone (Statcast)

A ball is officially "Barreled" when exit velocity is at least 98 mph and launch angle falls within 26°–30°. For every mph increase above 98 mph, the acceptable launch angle range expands. Barreled balls produce a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

xBA > .900 on 105+ mph / 25°–30° LA
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