Click & drag on the outfield to reposition where the ball lands!
Umpire Call
SAFE
Runner touched bag before tag sweep completed.
Runner 2nd→3rd Time
4.42s
At 27.0 ft/s (Avg MLB)
Relay Chain Time
4.58s
Field + OF Throw + Relay + Tag
Success Breakeven
76.4%
Minimum win-rate required to justify attempt.
Sabermetric Risk Assessment (RE24 Expected Runs)
With 2 outs, a runner on second has an expected run value of 0.344 runs. If safe at third, expected value rises to 0.388 runs (+0.044). But if thrown out, the inning ends at 0.000 (-0.344).
Risk vs Reward Ratio: 7.8 to 1 (The "Cardinal Sin" Rule)
Tactical Recommendation
DO NOT SEND: Stretching for third base as the 3rd out requires an extreme >88% certainty. Even with a close tag, the tiny run-expectancy upside (+0.04 runs) does not offset wiping a scoring-position runner off the bases before the next batter.
Physics Modeling & Sabermetric Methodology (Why Aaron Boone's Austin Wells play matters)
Kinematic Trajectory Model:
- Basepath Running Arc: Runners rounding second toward third cover ~132-136 feet along an elliptical tangent rather than a 90° right angle. Speed incorporates initial deceleration into the bag turn followed by peak sprint speed.
- Ball In Flight & Aerodynamic Drag: Outfield and cutoff throws are modeled with aerodynamic velocity decay ($v(t) = v_0 \cdot e^{-0.045 t}$) across throw distance.
- Defensive Chain: Total Defense Time = Outfielder travel + Glove-to-release exchange + Outfield throw flight + Relay infielder catch-and-pivot + Infield throw flight + 3B catch-and-sweep tag.
Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24 Sabermetrics):
- Baseball analytics dictates: "Never make the first or third out at third base."
- With 2 outs, a runner on 2nd scores on any single (probability ~25-30%), while advancing from 2nd to 3rd only benefits on a wild pitch, balk, or passed ball since a hit would score them either way!
- Hence, the run expectancy delta is tiny (+0.044 runs), while the cost of being thrown out is catastrophic (-0.344 runs). To break even, the runner must have an 88.7% chance of being safe.