Bayesian Poll Analyzer: X vs Twitter
Conjugate Dirichlet–Beta inference for the @stats_feed poll
13,472 votes
3 options
SOURCE: x.com/stats_feed/status/2080192539051639072
Prior strength (Dirichlet α₀)
1.0
X (votes)
Twitter (votes)
X (formerly Twitter)
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Run simulation
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Download CSV
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Total observed: 13,472
X
—
posterior mean
Twitter
—
posterior mean
X (formerly Twitter)
—
posterior mean
Posterior leader probability
10,000 Dirichlet draws · P(option is plurality winner)
X
—
leader prob.
Twitter
—
leader prob.
X (formerly Twitter)
—
leader prob.
Posterior predictive simulation
1,000 synthetic polls · Dirichlet → Multinomial
Synthetic poll size n
5,000
Random seed
Ready · click Run simulation
X
—
No simulation yet
Twitter
—
No simulation yet
X (formerly Twitter)
—
No simulation yet
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