P
Bayesian Background Vetting Risk Simulator
Multi-Tier Security Screening Probability Analytics
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Export Report
Vetting Scenarios
High-Volume Student Vetting
Low base rate (0.1%), High volume
Top Secret Intelligence Clearance
Moderate base rate (1.0%), Deep vetting
Targeted Threat Audit
Elevated base rate (5.0%), Strict filters
Pipeline Parameters
Base Rate Threat Prevalence
0.10%
True underlying proportion of security risks.
STAGE 1: Automated Background Check
Sensitivity (TPR)
95.0%
Specificity (TNR)
99.0%
STAGE 2: Deep Security Vetting
Sensitivity (TPR)
98.0%
Specificity (TNR)
99.5%
Positive Predictive Value (PPV)
0.0%
P(Threat | Stage 2 Flag)
False Positive Rate (System)
0.0%
Cleared Non-Threats Flagged
False Alarm Ratio
0:1
False Positives per True Threat
Overall System Throughput
0.0%
Applicants Fully Cleared
Representative Population Matrix (N=10,000)
True Clear
False Positive (Flagged)
True Threat (Flagged)
Unflagged Threat (Escaped)
Multi-Stage Bayesian Probability Flow
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) & Operational Operating Point
Clearance Protocol Assessment Summary
Stage 1 Post-Test Probability P(T|S1+)
0.0%
Stage 2 Post-Test Probability P(T|S2+)
0.0%
Expected Residual Risk P(T|Cleared)
0.0%
Bottleneck Ratio (False Flags / True Flags)
0.0x
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