Model Parameters
Field Position Impact & Return Trajectory
Drive Start: +12.5 Yds Net Swing
Drive Success Probability vs Return Distance
Based on NFL Expected Points Added (EPA) model
Special Teams Efficiency Benchmark Matrix
| Returner / Profile | Career Avg | Explosive % | Fair Catch % | EPA / Ret | Fumble Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios (Active) | 10.4 yds | 14.2% | 45.0% | +0.165 | 1.2% (Elite) |
| Devin Hester (All-Time Peak) | 11.7 yds | 19.8% | 33.5% | +0.285 | 2.8% |
| NFL Average Returner | 8.6 yds | 7.5% | 58.2% | -0.040 | 2.4% |
| Conservative Fair-Catch Specialist | 6.8 yds | 3.1% | 72.0% | -0.090 | 0.9% |
Computed Impact Telemetry
SIMULATOR V3.2
Expected Points Added (EPA)
+4.12
Cumulative offensive point differential across 25 returns
Expected Total Yards Gained
260.0
Total yardage flipped over opposition coverage units
Explosive Returns Projected (20+ Yds)
3.55
Drives starting immediately in high scoring probability territory
Field Position Advantage
+12.5 yds
Average starting advantage vs league standard touchback / return
Turnover Risk Index
Low (1.2%)
Muff / fumble safety rating under heavy pressure