Macro Stress Levers
LIVE
Backstop Credibility
72 / 100
Intervention Odds
78.4%
Put Strike & Reaction Frontier
PUT STRIKE: 4.85%
Cross-Asset Transmission Matrix
| Asset Channel | Stress Shock | Implied Level | Backstop Response |
|---|
Exhaustion Diagnostics
FRONTIER TEST
Dominant Exhaustion Risk
Bond market term-premium rebellion against debt expansion
Key Support Thresholds
Est Put Strike (10Y)
4.85%
SPX Support Buffer
-8.5%
Exhaustion Mechanism Summary
Treasury jawboning and coupon-issuance skews remain effective while 10Y yields remain below 4.85%. Beyond this ceiling, secondary term-premium spikes overwhelm discretionary buyback tools.