Bessent Put Macro Transmission & Stress Lab

Debt Mix & Policy Levers LIVE TRANSMISSION

T-Bill Issuance Share (%) 24%

TBAC ceiling ~20%; >22% actively suppresses long duration

Monthly Coupon Supply ($B) $125B

Tariff Rhetoric Tone Index 65 (De-escalatory)

0 = Aggressive Tariffs | 100 = Market Soothing

Inflation Trend (CPI YoY %) 2.8%

Put Strike Yield Ceiling (10Y %) 4.75%

Foreign Reserve Demand Multiplier 1.00x

Multi-Tenor Yield Curve & Backstop Corridor

Simulated Curve

Baseline

Put Ceiling Strike

2Y / 10Y SPREAD +28 bps Curve Steepness

5Y / 30Y SPREAD +34 bps Ultra-Long Term Premium

IMPLIED 10Y TERM PREMIUM -18 bps ACM Model Equivalent

DISTANCE TO PUT STRIKE +30 bps Buffer Before Breach

Backstop Health & Transmission INTACT

Bessent Put Active 88/100

Heavy T-bill reliance is draining RRP liquidity, successfully anchoring 10-year yields below the 4.75% tolerance threshold.

Primary Dealer Indigestion Low (28/100)

Est. Annual Interest Expense $1.14 Trillion

Money Market Rollover Friction Normal ($2.4T cap)

Equity Risk Cushion (S&P 500) +4.8% tailwind

Duration Supply Drain -$34B 10Y-Eq/mo

HISTORIC MARKET PUT EVOLUTION

Greenspan (1987): Rate cuts.
Bernanke (2008): Direct QE bond buying.
Bessent (2025): Liability debt mix skew (T-bills) + strategic tariff signaling without Fed easing.

AUDIT TRAIL LOG

Ready. System initialized in Baseline T-Bill Skew state.