Bilateral Tariff Relief Matrix | Supply Chain Duty & Landed Cost Modeler

Trade Agreement Controls

Agreement Framework Preset

Relief Goods Volume $30.0B

Annual FOB value covered under duty reduction

Average Tariff Cut Rate -15.0%

Average percentage point duty drop (e.g. 25% down to 10%)

Price Pass-Through Elasticity 70%

Fraction of tariff relief passed down to end buyers vs retained as importer margin

Freight & Handling Factor 8.5%

Baseline shipping/logistics cost applied to landed cost base

Bilateral Context: Based on the confirmed US-China trade negotiations covering $30,000,000,000 in goods. Adjust sectors dynamically in the table to model custom supply chain baskets.

Annual Duty Savings

$4.50B

Direct importer cash relief

End-Buyer Price Relief

$3.15B

At 70% consumer pass-through

Retained Importer Margin

$1.35B

Corporate cash flow capture

Avg Landed Cost Shift

-12.3%

Weighted CIF landed savings

Bilateral Trade Flow & Duty Distribution Matrix

Export Base (FOB)

Pre-Deal Tariff

Relieved Duty

Final Landed Cost

Sector Allocation & Effective Duty Impact

100% Allocated ($30.0B)

Sector / Category	Share	Volume	Pre-Tariff	Relief Cut	Post-Tariff	Annual Duty Saved	Landed Cost Δ

Understanding Landed Cost, Pass-Through Elasticity, and Bilateral Trade Flow

Landed Cost Computation (CIF): Landed cost is calculated as FOB Volume × (1 + Freight % + Applicable Tariff %). When tariffs drop from their pre-deal retaliatory baseline, the effective percentage reduction in landed cost is dampened by fixed shipping and harbor handling expenses.

Bilateral Sector Disaggregation: The model disaggregates trade flows into five strategic product groupings based on historical Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) bilateral volumes: Electronics & Sub-assemblies, Agricultural Machinery, Consumer Hardware, Chemical Precursors, and Clean Energy Components.

Pass-Through Elasticity: Not all tariff reductions translate into immediate retail deflation. Empirical trade studies find pass-through rates vary between 45% and 85%. Capital-intensive or tight-margin industries pass savings swiftly to defend market share, while supply-constrained sectors retain tariff cuts to replenish gross margin.

Export and Compliance Audits: Use the "Export CSV" feature to download sector-by-sector schedules with FOB values, tariff deltas, and estimated duty recoveries for customs brokers, supply chain planning, and corporate treasuries.