Billboard 200 Trajectory Studio
Billboard 200 Album Unit Decay & Chart Trajectory Studio
Source Grounding: Ariana Grande ‘petal’ (#1 Debut: 245K units • Week 2: #2 with 82K units)
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Week 2 Drop %
-66.5%
245K → 82.0K units
W2 Pure Sales Share
22.6%
18,500 Pure
W2 Streaming Share
76.3%
62.6K SEA Units
Proj. Week 3 Units / Rank
58.2K / #3
-29.0% vs W2
10-Week Cumulative Units
612,400
Gold Certified (500K+)
Weeks in Top 10
7 Wks
Top 5: 4 Weeks
Release Parameters
Archetype Preset
Pop Blockbuster
Streaming Sleeper
Vinyl Collector
Viral Singles Boom
Debut (Week 1) Units:
245,000
Week 2 Observed Units:
82,000
W2 Pure Physical/Digital Sales:
18,500
W2 Paid On-Demand Streams (1,250/unit):
68.2M
W2 Ad-Supported Streams (3,750/unit):
33.5M
W2 Track Sales (TEA, 10 track sales/unit):
8,900
Base Steady-State Weekly Decay:
18%
Mid-Cycle Promos
Music Video Premiere (+15%)
Deluxe Reissue (+45%)
Tour Kickoff (+25%)
Televised Live Event (+20%)
Vinyl Restock Wave (+35%)
Wk 3
Wk 4
Wk 5
Wk 6
Wk 7
Wk 8
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10-Week Unit Consumption Breakdown & Chart Thresholds
Estimated Billboard 200 Weekly Rank Trajectory
10-Week Industry Run-Sheet Breakdown
Week
Rank
Total Units
WoW Chg
Pure Sales
SEA (Streams)
TEA
Cum. Units
Milestone
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