Biotech Drug Pricing Deal Impact & Concession Stress-Tester

Gross-to-net waterfall, federal volume guarantee offsets, commercial spillover, & R&D pipeline runway

Mid-Cap ($2B-$10B)

Scenario Presets

Therapy & Concession Engine

Post-Deal Net Revenue $387.6M -18.4% vs Baseline Net
Realized Gross-to-Net (GTN) 51.2% Net Realization %
Federal Volume Offset +$74.8M +35.0% Volume Expansion
R&D Pipeline Runway 3.2 yrs Fully Funded
Gross-to-Net Revenue Concession Waterfall ($ Millions)
Initial Gross
Vol. Expansion
Concessions
Net Realized
Clinical R&D Pipeline Cash Exhaustion Trajectory & Trial Continuity
Post-Deal Trajectory
Pre-Deal Baseline

Phase I / Discovery Platform Secured

Req: $25M/yr 3.2 yrs horizon

Phase II Proof-of-Concept Funded

Req: $45M/yr Runway buffered

Phase III Pivotal Registrational Viable

Req: $70M/yr Target Launch 2028
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