Separate release history from a reveal scenario
Which dates are historical—and what actually produces the curve and scores?
The timeline selects a few Diablo milestones. The controls explore an authored marketing scenario; no sales, player cohorts, surveys, sentiment measurements or production milestones are fitted. A rising curve or green category does not show that a real reveal increases loyalty or that a sequel will launch in the displayed year.
Diablo 5 is a hypothetical planning label here. This page supplies no verified Diablo 5 announcement, release date or Blizzard strategy. Multipliers, retention percentages, risk cutoffs and action suggestions are authored rules, not forecasts or endorsed business advice. The timeline is selected context rather than a complete franchise archive.
Try a worked example
Reset loads a special 36-month, 2.5-year, 84% fixture: 2.4x, 88.5 and Low. Change retention to 85, then back to 84: the sliders match, but the preset is now custom. The normal formula gives 1 + (36/36) × (84/70) = 2.2x and 84 × 0.8 + (4 − 2.5) × 4 + 5 = 78.2; timing above 30 makes the category Moderate. This discontinuity comes from a preset override, not new evidence.
Read the formulas before the action suggestion
Custom peak is 1 + timing/36 × retention/70, rounded to one decimal. Retention index is 0.8 × retention + 4 × (4 − cadence), plus 5 for timing 24–48 or minus 5 above 48, clamped to 20–99.5. High means timing above 42 or cadence below 1.5; otherwise Moderate means timing above 30 or cadence below 2.0.
The action rule tests peak at least 2.2 and index at least 80 before testing High risk. Thus 60 months, cadence 1 and retention 100 gives 3.4x, 87 and High, yet still selects the early-teaser suggestion. These are independently ordered conditions, not an optimization or a proof that the chosen action is effective.
Understand the chart window and year label
The chart generates 73 points from month −36 through +36. Launch at month 0 is an assumed reference; hype is clamped to 5–100 model units. Reveal timings beyond 36 months start the generated buildup at −36 anyway, and their reveal marker lies outside the visible window. This view cannot compare the full pre-reveal history of a 60-month scenario.
Post-launch pulses use a sine of months divided by cadence months. They are not a list of actual expansion releases. The blue reference is 55% of the authored retention index, and the dashed threshold is 85; neither is a measured cohort floor or fatigue probability. The year card simply rounds 2025 + timing/12: it does not estimate development capacity, and cadence does not change that year.
Compare like milestones in the official record
Blizzard dates the original Diablo to December 31, 1996, and marked Diablo II’s twentieth anniversary in 2020. These are release-history anchors, not reveal-to-launch intervals. Blizzard: Original Diablo history Blizzard: Diablo II twentieth anniversary
The Diablo III launch notice specifies May 15, 2012. Diablo IV was revealed on November 1, 2019; its launch notice specifies June 6, 2023. The IV gap is about 43 months. An announcement-to-launch interval is different from the gap between two games’ releases; mixing them does not establish a franchise cadence. Blizzard: Diablo III launch notice Activision Blizzard: Diablo IV revealed Blizzard: Diablo IV launch date
Blizzard’s Vessel of Hatred rollout began October 7, 2024 at 4 p.m. PDT (October 8 in some regions); Lord of Hatred’s rollout began April 27, 2026 at 4 p.m. PDT (April 28 in some regions). These named Diablo IV expansions replace the vague “Exp 2” label. Their timing does not validate the slider’s hypothetical expansion schedule. Blizzard: Vessel of Hatred rollout Blizzard: Lord of Hatred rollout
Sources and further reading