Hypothetical release-spacing model for GTA VI and Ocarina of Time. Authored figures, not a verified same-day release or measured sales forecast.
Assumed weeks Zelda launches after GTA VI; earlier Zelda dates are unsupported.
Invented fraction of shared buying interest; not cross-play support or a survey.
Authored relative marketing input; no actual publisher spending is supplied.
Multiplier simulating November/December holiday buyer wallet expansion.
| Week | Calendar Event | GTA VI Est. Rev | Zelda Remake Est. Rev | Overlapping Spend Drain | Dominant Media Focal Point |
|---|
Does moving a release slider establish how many customers would switch purchases?
This toy demonstrates sensitivity to invented release-gap, overlap and marketing inputs. Its shares, revenue amounts, risk bands and PR scores are authored formulas rather than measured demand, platform cross-play data or validated forecasts. More separation improves its outputs by construction.
Only nonnegative gaps are supported: Zelda launches at or after GTA VI. Official product pages checked October 4, 2026 list Zelda for November 5 and GTA VI for November 19, the opposite order. The actual signed gap would be −2 weeks and cannot be entered. The default same-day fixture is hypothetical. Dates may change; follow the publisher links.
The stored default uses gap 0, overlap 35%, marketing ratio 4.5 and holiday 1.20. It produces $1.48B and 58.4% / 41.6%, rounded separately to $864M / $616M. Select four weeks with the other defaults: the gross formula adds 4×$0.04B = $0.16B, giving $1.64B. Zelda’s share reaches the 48% clamp, leaving GTA at 52%; rounded amounts are GTA $853M / Zelda $787M. These are consequences of the formulas, not publisher guidance.
Rockstar’s official store lists November 19, 2026 for GTA VI. Nintendo’s US page lists November 5, 2026 for Ocarina of Time, built for Nintendo Switch 2. These sources establish listed dates and product context; neither supplies this model’s marketing ratios, 35% overlap, risk categories or $1.48B baseline. Rockstar Store: Grand Theft Auto VI Nintendo: The Legend of Zelda — Ocarina of Time
A real overlap analysis would define the eligible hardware-owning audience, region, buying period and observable outcome, then distinguish postponed purchases from permanently lost sales. Shared interest in two games is not cross-play compatibility. The page does not collect such evidence or estimate uncertainty.
Risk bands depend on the gap alone. Overlap and marketing affect the clamped share formula, but the mindshare scores use only the gap. The gross formula ignores marketing, and a holiday change alone has no effect at gap zero and default overlap. Budget B is a stored fixture, not a separately adjustable parameter. Do not interpret unchanged metrics as evidence that those factors do not matter in the real world.
The waveform uses fixed exponential curves and shifts Zelda’s peak by the chosen gap. Its 12 points cover weeks 1–12; a gap of 12 places Zelda’s launch in week 13, beyond that window. The six-row table is a separate authored weekly illustration driven only by gap, not a decomposition of the combined 30-day amount. Table values need not sum to the revenue ribbon; the JSON exports the ribbon results, not those rows.
Listed release date and publisher; not model demand estimates.
Listed November 5, 2026 release and Switch 2 context; not the original same-day premise.