USD / JPY Spot Rate
FX
139.85
Base: 142.50 | -2.65 JPY (-1.86%)
10-Year JGB Yield
SOVEREIGN
1.15%
Base: 0.92% | +23.0 bps yield shift
TOPIX Equity Index Impact
EQUITIES
-1.85%
Implied: 2,630.42 (-49.58 pts)
Monthly JGB QT Taper Pace
BALANCE SHEET
¥400B/mo
Bond portfolio roll-off run-rate
Policy Levers & Guidance
Inputs
Scenario Presets
BOJ Uncollateralized Overnight Target Rate
0.50%
0.00%
0.25% (Base)
0.50%
1.00%
Quantitative Tightening (JGB Monthly Reduction)
¥400B
¥0 (Reinvest all)
¥400B (Active Taper)
¥1,000B
Governor Ueda Press Conference Stance
Hawkish Pivot
Neutral Hold
Dovish Pause
Baseline Market Inputs
Initial USD/JPY: 142.50
Initial 10Y JGB: 0.92%
Initial TOPIX: 2,680.00
Transmission Mechanism:
A rate hike to 0.50% narrows the US-Japan interest rate differential, triggering systematic Yen carry trade liquidation and capital repatriation by Japanese domestic institutional life insurers.
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Sovereign Yield Curve
Baseline (Pre-Meeting)
Projected Curve
USD/JPY Immediate Policy Announcement Reaction & Path
Spot Trajectory (T0 to T+180m)
Carry Trade Liquidation Index
Elevated unwinding risk. At USD/JPY below 140.00, high-leverage algorithmic carry strategies face margin compression and systematic dollar selling.
Financial Institution Spread Impact
Net interest margin expansion for mega-banks (MUFG, SMFG, Mizuho) offsetting equity headwinds as loan yield benchmarks reprice higher.
Global Asset Spillover Alert
US Treasuries and European sovereign debt observe reduced Japanese offshore buying as domestic 10Y JGB yield approaches attractive 1.15% territory.