JGB Yield Curve & Transmission Forecast
Tenors: 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y
Central Bank Term-Premium Transmission:
Yield delta is modeled via Nelson-Siegel modified elasticity:
Δy(m) = ΔR * [β₀ + β₁·e^(-m/τ)]. USD/JPY response incorporates uncovered interest parity (UIP) gap & carry volume beta.
Custom Policy Transmission Workbench
| Tenor | Baseline Yield | Simulated Yield | Yield Delta |
|---|
Analytical Context: Sanae Takaichi has historically advocated for aggressive monetary expansion (Abenomics). When an aide within her reflationist faction acknowledges or projects a September rate hike, it indicates political clearance for Governor Kazuo Ueda to advance normalization without severe Diet backlash.