Corridor Scenario Presets:
Reported Gross Transit
113,000
Total 2-way crossing events
Computed Net Inbound
33,479
Net retained + transit entrants
Outbound Return Flow
79,521
Exit / commercial returnees
Checkpoint Saturation
1.26x
Cap: 6,400 daily capacity
Host Retained (Georgia)
19,418
Remaining in-country (est.)
Working-Age Male Loss
30,131
Ages 18–44 origin workforce drain
Geospatial Caucasus & Transit Corridors
Dariali Gorge / Stepantsminda Route
Choke Point (Upper Lars)
Inbound Primary Vector
Onward Transit Hubs
Occupied/Restricted Zones
Topographical & Choke Constraint: The Military Georgian Highway through Kazbegi/Dariali Gorge constitutes the only legal functioning overland crossing between Russia and Georgia. South Ossetia (Roki Tunnel) and Abkhazia borders remain militarized and closed under Georgian law.
Flow Balance Ledger & Partitioning
8,071 daily throughput
1. Gross Corridor Events (Inbound)
113,000 (100%)
2. Outbound Circular Return Flow
79,521 (70.4%)
Commercial freight, shuttle couriers, and short-term visitors returning to North Ossetia.
3. Net Inbound Entry (Retained + Onward)
33,479 (29.6%)
ONWARD AIR/LAND TRANSIT
14,061
Armenia, Turkey, Kazakhstan
RETAINED IN GEORGIA
19,418
Visa-free 365-day residency
Corridor Calibration & Flow Ratio Workbench
Reported Gross Volume:
113,000
Inbound / Outbound Ratio:
1.42x
Observation Window (Days):
14 days
Upper Lars Daily Veh. Capacity:
3,200 veh/day
Onward Transit Fraction:
42%
Working-Age Male Share (18-44):
90%
| Source & Level | Claimed Metric | Methodological Flaw / Reconciliation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social Media / Viral Headlines | "113,000 Russians flee to Georgia amid mobilization" | Conflates cumulative gross two-way border passage events with net one-way political refugee entry. | Debunked Gross |
| Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) | Daily entry: ~5,500–6,800; Daily exit: ~4,500–5,800 | Official border police database registering timestamped bi-directional movements at Dariali border crossing. | Official Data |
| Regional OSINT & Flight Telemetry | 42% onward transit within 14 days | Tbilisi & Kutaisi international airports record surging outbound flights to Yerevan, Istanbul, Dubai, and Tel Aviv. | Verified Transit |
Fertility Rate & Natural Depopulation Vector
Russia's total fertility rate (TFR) stands at 1.36 births per woman (far below the 2.1 population replacement threshold). The concentrated departure of prime-age cohorts (18–29: 58%, 30–44: 32%) permanently removes active family-formation potential from origin regions.
Estimated Birth Deficit (5-yr window): -13,659
Annualized Gross Output Loss: $482M USD
Origin Workforce & Human Capital Drain
Skilled labor (IT, finance, engineering) makes up an estimated 64% of overland Lars evacuees, compounding acute domestic labor shortages in high-tech and industrial manufacturing sectors.
Working-Age Male Loss (Model): 30,131
Tech/Professional Share: ~19,284 individuals
Georgia (Upper Lars)
Share: 44% • Onward: 42%
365-day visa-free stay; primary bottleneck in Dariali Gorge.
Kazakhstan (Uralsk/Atyrau)
Share: 28% • Onward: 31%
Eurasian Economic Union access; flat steppe land crossings.
Armenia (Air / Zvartnots)
Share: 16% • Onward: 48%
Internal Russian passport accepted; financial transit relay.
Turkey / Middle East
Share: 12% • Onward: 65%
Direct flights & Black Sea ferry connections.
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