Border War Spread & Rivalry Analyzer

Missouri Tigers Favorite • Spread -4.5

Kansas Jayhawks Underdog • Spread +4.5

Spread Setting (Points) -4.5

-14.0 (Heavy Mizzou) PK (0.0) +14.0 (Heavy KU)

Actual Game Margin (Mizzou pts - KU pts) +6 pts

-28 (KU Blowout) 0 (Tie) +28 (MU Blowout)

Rivalry Chippiness & War Drum Heat 8.5 / 10

1.0 (Calm Handshakes) 5.0 (Scrappy) 10.0 (War Drum Melee)

Quick Presets:

Cover Buffer

+1.5

Sim Cover %

56.2%

Tension State

High (Chippy Rivalry)

Spread Probability & Outcome Matrix

Gaussian simulation model calibrated to collegiate football rivalry variance.

🥁

War Drum Trophy Awarded

The postgame ceremony sparked heated tension between squads. Chippiness measured at 8.5.

Historical Border War Spread Comparisons

Year	Spread	Result	Margin	ATS Winner
2024 (Sim)	MU -4.5	MU W 27-21	+6	Mizzou
2011	MU -6.5	MU W 24-10	+14	Mizzou
2009	KU -2.5	MU W 41-39	+2	Mizzou
2008	MU -17.5	KU W 40-37	-3	Kansas
2007 (#1 vs #2)	MU -3.0	MU W 36-28	+8	Mizzou

Methodology Note: Spread calculation is evaluated as Actual Margin + Spread > 0 for favorite cover. Standard football deviation is set at σ=13.5 points adjusted for rivalry volatility.