Polymarket Mispricing Spread: -21.6%
Polymarket traders imply a 50.0% win rate for Dune 3, but empirical simulation indicates 28.4% probability based on historical theater capacity.
Dune 3 Median OW
$142.5M
P10: $122.0M · P90: $164.8M
Doomsday Median OW
$178.2M
P10: $151.4M · P90: $207.1M
Simulated Dune 3 Win %
28.4%
2,500 Head-to-Head Runs
Polymarket Mispricing
-21.6%
Traders Overestimating Dune 3
Opening Weekend Domestic Probability Densities
Continuous Gaussian Box Office Projections ($M)
Franchise Benchmark Comparables
| Title | Release | Domestic OW ($M) | IMAX Share | Total Domestic ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part One | Oct 2021 | $41.0M | 22.5% | $108.3M |
| Dune: Part Two | Mar 2024 | $82.5M | 38.2% | $282.1M |
| Avengers: Infinity War | Apr 2018 | $257.7M | 16.8% | $678.8M |
| Avengers: Endgame | Apr 2019 | $357.1M | 15.2% | $858.4M |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Jul 2024 | $211.4M | 18.4% | $636.7M |