Sean Murphy 3-Run Blast Ballistics & Truist Park Explorer

Launch Physics LIVE STATCAST

Blast Presets

Exit Velocity 106.5 mph

Launch Angle 28°

Spray Angle (LF ← → RF) -18° (LF)

Wind Speed (Outfield Draft) 4 mph Out

Game Situation Leverage

Inning & Score Deficit

Outs & Baserunners Prior to Blast

Truist Park Scale Layout HOMER (CLEAR)

Atlanta, GA

TRUIST PARK FENCE LINE
LF: 335' | LCF: 385' | CF: 400' | RCF: 375' | RF: 325'

Proj. Distance

418 FT

Apex Height

98 FT

Hang Time

4.9 SEC

Wall Margin

+42 FT

30-Ballpark Home Run Check 30 / 30 PARKS

Calculated clearance over outfield fences across all Major League ballparks given launch trajectory and angle:

Win Probability Added (WPA) ATL Win Chance

Leverage Index: 2.38

Before: 16.4% → After: 47.8%

+31.4%

Game Impact: Sean Murphy's 3-run shot erases the deficit, swinging Atlanta from a 16.4% win expectancy up to 47.8%.

Sean Murphy Power Profile: Career Hard-Hit %: 45.8% | Barrel Rate: 13.2% | Max EV: 114.6 mph. True pull-power threat when attacking inside fastballs.

Statcast Aerodynamic Ballistics Formulation

The trajectory simulation solves coupled non-linear equations of motion for a baseball traversing standard atmospheric density (1.204 kg/m³ at 75°F at Atlanta's 1,050 ft Truist Park elevation).

Air Density / Elevation Factor: Truist Park (1,050 ft, ~2% carry boost)

Drag Coefficient (C_D): 0.312 (Reynolds ~ 1.8 × 10⁵)

Magnus Lift Coefficient (C_L): 0.220 (Backspin ~ 2,150 RPM)

Terminal Landing Angle: 46.2°

Truist Park features an 8.5-foot wall in left field (335 ft down the line, 385 ft in left-center alley) expanding to 400 ft to straightaway center. Murphy's blast clearing deep left-center requires at least 388 carry feet at that spray angle.

Win Expectancy & Run Swing Mechanics

Getting "on the board" with a multi-run blast delivers an outsized emotional and statistical jolt to high-leverage MLB games. Using the standard historical MLB Markov run-expectancy matrix:

Base State (1st & 2nd, 1 Out): 1.437 Expected Runs

Event Output: 3 Runs Scored, Bases Cleared, 1 Out

Post-Event Run Expectancy: 0.254 Expected Runs (empty bases)

Net Run Value of Blast: +1.817 Runs Above Expectation

When trailing early by 3 runs, erasing the entire deficit on one swing flips the contest from an uphill chase back to essentially a dead heat.