Female Breadwinner Income Share & Marital Risk Explorer

Relative Marital Dissolution Hazard by Income Share 75% Earner Peak (+30%)

Drag the scrubber or click the curve to analyze non-linear risk. Parity (50/50) = 1.00 baseline.

20-Year Cohort Survival Trajectory 20-Year Horizon

Cumulative probability of remaining married over time, comparing the selected income split against equal 50/50 earner parity.

Econometric Breakdown by Household Earnings Distribution

Female Income %	Spousal Ratio (F/M)	Relative Hazard	Risk vs Parity	5-Yr Intact	10-Yr Intact	20-Yr Intact

Analytical Scenarios

Female Share of Income:

Background Annual Hazard (λ₀): 2.4% / yr

1.30x

Hazard Ratio

+30.0%

vs 50/50 Parity

53.7%

20-Yr Survival

Study Finding: French demographic models show couples where wives earn ~75% of income face a +30% elevated dissolution rate relative to equal-earning pairs, illustrating asymmetric gender-role identity penalties.

Theoretical Mechanism: Sociological research on the "male breadwinner norm" suggests deviations where female earnings significantly outpace male earnings can induce marital friction, asymmetric leisure/chore reallocation, and elevated dissolution hazard.

Methodology Notes

• Empirical Peak: Calibrated to demographic hazard estimates reported in The Economist.

• Hazard Specification: Cox proportional hazards $h(t) = h_0(t) \cdot \exp(\beta f(s))$, normalized to parity at $s = 0.50$.

• Survival Model: $S(t) = \exp(- \lambda_0 \cdot \text{HR} \cdot t)$ representing intact marriages across cohorts.